NBA · moneyline · MoneyLine system
Away team at 4%+ EV, priced -200 to +200: moneyline
NBA: back the away team when one book prices the bet at 4% EV or more against the other books' no-vig price, at a price from -200 to +200 (moneyline). Machine rule: {"listedSide": "away", "ev.ml.pct": {"min": 4}, "ev.ml.price": {"min": -200, "max": 200}}; bet {"market": "ml", "side": "team", "price": "ev_book"} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
49-33 since 2021, ROI after the vig +29.0%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 49-33 (n=82), won 59.8% (95% range 48.9% to 69.7%); break-even 46.4%; ROI after the vig +29.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 35-25, +28.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 14-8, +31.4%
- 2021-22
- 28-20 (n=48), ROI +26.9%
- 2022-23
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +55.1%
- 2023-24
- 2-3 (n=5), ROI +2.0%
- 2024-25
- 4-4 (n=8), ROI -4.8%
- 2025-26
- 9-3 (n=12), ROI +64.6%
- 2026-27
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI -22.2%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.