NBA · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Fade 4+ straight covers (first half)
Team covered its last 4+ games. First-half bet. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
238-210-4 since 2023, ROI after the vig +1.3%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 238-210-4 (n=448), won 53.1% (95% range 48.5% to 57.7%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +1.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 75-64-1, +2.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 163-146-3, +0.7%
- 2023-24
- 75-64-1 (n=139), ROI +2.9%
- 2024-25
- 80-72-2 (n=152), ROI +0.5%
- 2025-26
- 79-66-1 (n=145), ROI +3.8%
- 2026-27
- 4-8 (n=12), ROI -36.0%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.