NBA · spread · Published system
Fade narrow favorite winners, favored again
Won last game as favorite by 1-3 points; favored again. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
187-141-5 since 2021, ROI after the vig +9.0%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 187-141-5 (n=328), won 57.0% (95% range 51.6% to 62.3%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +9.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 101-89-4, +1.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 86-52-1, +19.2%
- 2021-22
- 35-23-1 (n=58), ROI +15.3%
- 2022-23
- 36-32-2 (n=68), ROI +1.3%
- 2023-24
- 30-34-1 (n=64), ROI -10.4%
- 2024-25
- 39-27-1 (n=66), ROI +13.1%
- 2025-26
- 42-23 (n=65), ROI +23.7%
- 2026-27
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +35.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.