NBA · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Fast starter (season 1H margin +3) as an underdog (home): 1H spread
Fast starter (season 1H margin +3) as an underdog (home): 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "line.spread": {"gt": 0}, "side": "home"} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
54-48-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +1.0%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 54-48-1 (n=102), won 52.9% (95% range 43.3% to 62.3%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +1.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 21-18, +2.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 33-30-1, +0.2%
- 2023-24
- 21-18 (n=39), ROI +2.4%
- 2024-25
- 12-10 (n=22), ROI +4.8%
- 2025-26
- 21-17-1 (n=38), ROI +5.4%
- 2026-27
- 0-3 (n=3), ROI -100.0%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.