NBA · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Home favorite of 5 to 9.5 off 3+ straight non-covers (first half)
Home team, favorite of 5 to 9.5 at the close, failed to cover 3+ straight. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
53-42 since 2023, ROI after the vig +6.4%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 53-42 (n=95), won 55.8% (95% range 45.8% to 65.4%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +6.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 15-8, +24.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 38-34, +0.6%
- 2023-24
- 15-8 (n=23), ROI +24.4%
- 2024-25
- 22-13 (n=35), ROI +19.5%
- 2025-26
- 16-19 (n=35), ROI -12.5%
- 2026-27
- 0-2 (n=2), ROI -100.0%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.