NBA · spread · MoneyLine system
Home underdog of 4.5 or less on a 4+ game losing streak
Home team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, has lost 4+ straight. Bet that team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
68-58-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.4%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 68-58-2 (n=126), won 54.0% (95% range 45.3% to 62.4%); break-even 52.2%; ROI after the vig +3.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 42-36-1, +3.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 26-22-1, +3.9%
- 2021-22
- 17-10-1 (n=27), ROI +20.5%
- 2022-23
- 15-14 (n=29), ROI -1.2%
- 2023-24
- 10-12 (n=22), ROI -12.7%
- 2024-25
- 13-7-1 (n=20), ROI +24.6%
- 2025-26
- 12-14 (n=26), ROI -11.5%
- 2026-27
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI -2.7%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.