NBA · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Road favorite of 4.5 or less on a 3-in-4 vs a fresher team (first half)
Road team, favorite of 4.5 or less at the close, is on its 3rd game in 4 nights, opponent is not. Bet its opponent ATS. First-half spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
63-48-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +8.2%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 63-48-2 (n=111), won 56.8% (95% range 47.5% to 65.6%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +8.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 23-13, +21.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 40-35-2, +1.9%
- 2023-24
- 23-13 (n=36), ROI +21.3%
- 2024-25
- 20-14 (n=34), ROI +12.3%
- 2025-26
- 19-21-2 (n=40), ROI -9.2%
- 2026-27
- 1-0 (n=1), ROI +90.4%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.