NBA · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Road favorite of 4.5 or less on a back-to-back vs a rested team (first half)
Road team, favorite of 4.5 or less at the close, is on a back-to-back, opponent rested. Bet its opponent ATS. First-half spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
42-36 since 2023, ROI after the vig +2.6%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 42-36 (n=78), won 53.8% (95% range 42.9% to 64.5%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +2.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 12-10, +3.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 30-26, +2.2%
- 2023-24
- 12-10 (n=22), ROI +3.5%
- 2024-25
- 18-11 (n=29), ROI +18.5%
- 2025-26
- 12-14 (n=26), ROI -12.0%
- 2026-27
- 0-1 (n=1), ROI -100.0%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.