NBA · spread · MoneyLine system
Road underdog of 10+ on a 3-in-4 vs a fresher team
Road team, underdog of 10+ at the close, is on its 3rd game in 4 nights, opponent is not. Bet its opponent ATS. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
114-96-5 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.6%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 114-96-5 (n=210), won 54.3% (95% range 47.5% to 60.9%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +3.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 61-55-3, +0.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 53-41-2, +7.6%
- 2021-22
- 22-19-1 (n=41), ROI +2.4%
- 2022-23
- 23-17-2 (n=40), ROI +10.0%
- 2023-24
- 16-19 (n=35), ROI -12.8%
- 2024-25
- 25-20-1 (n=45), ROI +6.0%
- 2025-26
- 26-16-1 (n=42), ROI +18.1%
- 2026-27
- 2-5 (n=7), ROI -44.9%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.