NBA · moneyline · MoneyLine system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less off 3+ straight non-covers, moneyline
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less, failed to cover 3+ straight. Bet it to win outright. Bet: back them on the moneyline.
82-88 since 2021, ROI after the vig +7.9%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 82-88 (n=170), won 48.2% (95% range 40.8% to 55.7%); break-even 44.6%; ROI after the vig +7.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 53-53, +11.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 29-35, +2.2%
- 2021-22
- 18-17 (n=35), ROI +16.9%
- 2022-23
- 18-20 (n=38), ROI +5.7%
- 2023-24
- 17-16 (n=33), ROI +11.7%
- 2024-25
- 15-20 (n=35), ROI -3.8%
- 2025-26
- 13-14 (n=27), ROI +9.4%
- 2026-27
- 1-1 (n=2), ROI +9.0%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.