NBA · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less off a loss (first half)
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, lost its last game. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
220-180-3 since 2023, ROI after the vig +4.9%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 220-180-3 (n=400), won 55.0% (95% range 50.1% to 59.8%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +4.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 79-61-2, +7.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 141-119-1, +3.4%
- 2023-24
- 79-61-2 (n=140), ROI +7.5%
- 2024-25
- 73-56-1 (n=129), ROI +7.9%
- 2025-26
- 60-54 (n=114), ROI +0.4%
- 2026-27
- 8-9 (n=17), ROI -10.4%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.