NBA · spread · MoneyLine system
Road underdog of 4.5 or less on a 4+ game losing streak
Road team, underdog of 4.5 or less at the close, has lost 4+ straight. Bet that team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
61-43-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +12.3%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 61-43-1 (n=104), won 58.7% (95% range 49.0% to 67.7%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +12.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 32-24-1, +9.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 29-19, +15.7%
- 2021-22
- 8-11-1 (n=19), ROI -19.6%
- 2022-23
- 9-7 (n=16), ROI +7.5%
- 2023-24
- 15-6 (n=21), ROI +36.9%
- 2024-25
- 14-7 (n=21), ROI +27.9%
- 2025-26
- 13-10 (n=23), ROI +8.3%
- 2026-27
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -5.3%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.