NBA · spread · MoneyLine system
Road underdog of 5 to 9.5 off a 15+ point loss
Road team, underdog of 5 to 9.5 at the close, lost its last game by 15+. Bet that team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
183-148-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +5.8%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 183-148-2 (n=331), won 55.3% (95% range 49.9% to 60.6%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +5.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 117-91-2, +7.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 66-57, +2.7%
- 2021-22
- 44-27 (n=71), ROI +18.6%
- 2022-23
- 39-31-1 (n=70), ROI +6.6%
- 2023-24
- 34-33-1 (n=67), ROI -2.9%
- 2024-25
- 39-27 (n=66), ROI +13.2%
- 2025-26
- 21-27 (n=48), ROI -16.3%
- 2026-27
- 6-3 (n=9), ROI +26.6%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.