NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Big win-pct mismatch favorites 1H
Favorite whose season win pct is .300+ higher than the opponent's (week 4 on), 1H spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
126-107-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +2.9%.
Published system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 126-107-1 (n=233), won 54.1% (95% range 47.7% to 60.4%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +2.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 31-25, +5.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 95-82-1, +2.3%
- 2023-24
- 31-25 (n=56), ROI +5.0%
- 2024-25
- 43-27 (n=70), ROI +16.7%
- 2025-26
- 36-41-1 (n=77), ROI -10.6%
- 2026-27
- 16-14 (n=30), ROI +1.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.