NFL · spread · Published system
Division road dog of 3.5 to 6.5 off a win
NFL regular season, division game, road dog of 3.5 to 6.5 off a win: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
27-10 since 2021, ROI after the vig +39.3%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (37 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 27-10 (n=37), won 73.0% (95% range 57.0% to 84.6%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +39.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 15-7, +29.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 12-3, +53.2%
- 2021-22
- 6-1 (n=7), ROI +62.9%
- 2022-23
- 6-5 (n=11), ROI +4.3%
- 2023-24
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +42.1%
- 2024-25
- 5-0 (n=5), ROI +92.5%
- 2025-26
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +42.5%
- 2026-27
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +27.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.