NFL · spread · Published system
Division road dog of 3 or less
NFL regular season, division game, road dog of 3 or less: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
55-40-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +11.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 55-40-1 (n=95), won 57.9% (95% range 47.9% to 67.3%); break-even 52.0%; ROI after the vig +11.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 33-22, +15.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 22-18-1, +5.6%
- 2021-22
- 11-4 (n=15), ROI +40.2%
- 2022-23
- 11-11 (n=22), ROI -3.8%
- 2023-24
- 11-7 (n=18), ROI +18.0%
- 2024-25
- 10-8-1 (n=18), ROI +7.1%
- 2025-26
- 9-7 (n=16), ROI +7.8%
- 2026-27
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI -5.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.