NFL · spread · Published system
Dog of 4+ after losing by 28+
Spread +4 or more; previous game lost by 28+; team game number >= 2. Bet: back them on the spread.
27-20 since 2021, ROI after the vig +9.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (47 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 27-20 (n=47), won 57.5% (95% range 43.3% to 70.5%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +9.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 13-10, +7.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 14-10, +11.5%
- 2021-22
- 8-6 (n=14), ROI +8.9%
- 2022-23
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -3.8%
- 2023-24
- 3-2 (n=5), ROI +13.6%
- 2024-25
- 6-5 (n=11), ROI +4.4%
- 2025-26
- 5-5 (n=10), ROI -4.4%
- 2026-27
- 3-0 (n=3), ROI +90.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.