NFL · spread · Published system
Dogs after scoring 3 or fewer
Underdog that scored 3 or fewer points in its last game. Bet: back them on the spread.
33-18-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +23.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 33-18-1 (n=51), won 64.7% (95% range 51.0% to 76.4%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +23.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 18-10-1, +22.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 15-8, +25.2%
- 2021-22
- 5-5 (n=10), ROI -4.4%
- 2022-23
- 7-2 (n=9), ROI +48.2%
- 2023-24
- 6-3-1 (n=9), ROI +27.2%
- 2024-25
- 4-4 (n=8), ROI -4.1%
- 2025-26
- 7-3 (n=10), ROI +34.7%
- 2026-27
- 4-1 (n=5), ROI +53.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.