NFL · spread · Published system
Dogs after scoring 6 or fewer
Underdog that scored 6 or fewer points in its last game. Bet: back them on the spread.
49-38-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +7.7%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 49-38-2 (n=87), won 56.3% (95% range 45.9% to 66.3%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +7.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 25-22-1, +1.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 24-16-1, +14.6%
- 2021-22
- 8-10 (n=18), ROI -15.1%
- 2022-23
- 7-5 (n=12), ROI +11.2%
- 2023-24
- 10-7-1 (n=17), ROI +13.2%
- 2024-25
- 6-9-1 (n=15), ROI -23.6%
- 2025-26
- 12-5 (n=17), ROI +34.8%
- 2026-27
- 6-2 (n=8), ROI +43.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.