NFL · spread · Published system
Early-season divisional road dogs
Division game, road underdog, Weeks 1-10. Bet: back them on the spread.
78-66-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 78-66-1 (n=144), won 54.2% (95% range 46.0% to 62.1%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +3.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 43-35, +5.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 35-31-1, +1.5%
- 2021-22
- 16-11 (n=27), ROI +12.8%
- 2022-23
- 18-12 (n=30), ROI +14.8%
- 2023-24
- 9-12 (n=21), ROI -18.2%
- 2024-25
- 12-6 (n=18), ROI +28.7%
- 2025-26
- 10-15 (n=25), ROI -23.7%
- 2026-27
- 13-10-1 (n=23), ROI +7.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.