NFL · spread · Published system
Fade division favorites that lost but covered
Lost last game but covered; division favorite now: bet against. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
15-8 since 2021, ROI after the vig +25.4%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (23 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 15-8 (n=23), won 65.2% (95% range 44.9% to 81.2%); break-even 52.0%; ROI after the vig +25.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 9-5, +23.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 6-3, +29.0%
- 2021-22
- 1-2 (n=3), ROI -36.2%
- 2022-23
- 5-1 (n=6), ROI +59.4%
- 2023-24
- 3-2 (n=5), ROI +15.1%
- 2024-25
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +46.0%
- 2025-26
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +44.2%
- 2026-27
- 0-1 (n=1), ROI -100.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.