NFL · spread · Published system
Fade favorites with a much worse record
Favorite (4+ games) whose win pct is .250+ worse: bet against. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
34-22 since 2021, ROI after the vig +16.0%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 34-22 (n=56), won 60.7% (95% range 47.6% to 72.4%); break-even 52.2%; ROI after the vig +16.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 16-8, +27.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 18-14, +7.7%
- 2021-22
- 7-0 (n=7), ROI +88.6%
- 2022-23
- 6-5 (n=11), ROI +5.4%
- 2023-24
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI -5.5%
- 2024-25
- 7-4 (n=11), ROI +23.8%
- 2025-26
- 6-5 (n=11), ROI +4.3%
- 2026-27
- 5-5 (n=10), ROI -6.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.