NFL · spread · Published system
Fade home dogs with the better record
Home underdog whose win pct is .100+ better: bet against. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
17-10 since 2021, ROI after the vig +20.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (27 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 17-10 (n=27), won 63.0% (95% range 44.2% to 78.5%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +20.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 8-3, +38.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 9-7, +7.8%
- 2021-22
- 1-2 (n=3), ROI -36.4%
- 2022-23
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +42.4%
- 2023-24
- 4-0 (n=4), ROI +89.7%
- 2024-25
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI -5.4%
- 2025-26
- 4-3 (n=7), ROI +9.2%
- 2026-27
- 2-1 (n=3), ROI +31.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.