NFL · spread · Published system
Fade MNF non-conference home teams
Monday night AFC vs NFC, home team. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
21-12-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +21.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (33 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 21-12-2 (n=33), won 63.6% (95% range 46.6% to 77.8%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +21.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 9-3-1, +43.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 12-9-1, +9.0%
- 2021-22
- 3-0 (n=3), ROI +87.8%
- 2022-23
- 3-1 (n=4), ROI +43.4%
- 2023-24
- 3-2-1 (n=5), ROI +16.4%
- 2024-25
- 6-4-1 (n=10), ROI +13.3%
- 2025-26
- 4-5 (n=9), ROI -14.1%
- 2026-27
- 2-0 (n=2), ROI +91.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.