NFL · spread_h1 · MoneyLine system
Fast starter (+3) as a favorite: 1H spread
Fast starter (+3) as a favorite: 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "line.spread": {"lt": 0}} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
146-122-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +3.8%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 146-122-1 (n=268), won 54.5% (95% range 48.5% to 60.3%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +3.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 51-37, +10.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 95-85-1, +0.8%
- 2023-24
- 51-37 (n=88), ROI +10.0%
- 2024-25
- 51-30 (n=81), ROI +19.8%
- 2025-26
- 34-43-1 (n=77), ROI -14.9%
- 2026-27
- 10-12 (n=22), ROI -14.3%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.