NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Home favorite off a loss, 1H
Regular-season home favorite off a loss, 1H spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
118-90-4 since 2023, ROI after the vig +7.6%.
Published system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 118-90-4 (n=208), won 56.7% (95% range 49.9% to 63.3%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +7.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 42-31-1, +8.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 76-59-3, +7.1%
- 2023-24
- 42-31-1 (n=73), ROI +8.5%
- 2024-25
- 27-23-2 (n=50), ROI +2.6%
- 2025-26
- 33-25-1 (n=58), ROI +8.5%
- 2026-27
- 16-11 (n=27), ROI +12.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.