NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5, 1H
Regular-season home favorite of 3 to 6.5, 1H spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
150-116-4 since 2023, ROI after the vig +6.7%.
Published system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 150-116-4 (n=266), won 56.4% (95% range 50.4% to 62.2%); break-even 52.8%; ROI after the vig +6.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 51-31, +17.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 99-85-4, +1.9%
- 2023-24
- 51-31 (n=82), ROI +17.4%
- 2024-25
- 42-36-3 (n=78), ROI +2.2%
- 2025-26
- 35-32-1 (n=67), ROI -1.3%
- 2026-27
- 22-17 (n=39), ROI +6.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.