NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Late-window home favorites 1H
4 PM ET window (late) home favorite, 1H spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
84-64-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +8.3%.
Published system — made money 2023–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2026-27
- 84-64-2 (n=148), won 56.8% (95% range 48.7% to 64.5%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +8.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 29-18, +18.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 55-46-2, +3.7%
- 2023-24
- 29-18 (n=47), ROI +18.1%
- 2024-25
- 23-16-2 (n=39), ROI +13.0%
- 2025-26
- 22-21 (n=43), ROI -3.2%
- 2026-27
- 10-9 (n=19), ROI -0.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.