NFL · total · Published system
Low-scoring teams not big dogs overs
Team averaging under 14 PPG, not more than an 8-point dog: Over. Bet: bet the over.
19-10 since 2021, ROI after the vig +24.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (29 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 19-10 (n=29), won 65.5% (95% range 47.3% to 80.1%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +24.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 10-7, +12.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 9-3, +42.7%
- 2021-22
- 3-0 (n=3), ROI +90.3%
- 2022-23
- 1-0 (n=1), ROI +90.7%
- 2023-24
- 6-7 (n=13), ROI -11.8%
- 2024-25
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +26.8%
- 2025-26
- 3-0 (n=3), ROI +90.3%
- 2026-27
- 2-1 (n=3), ROI +26.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.