NFL · spread · Published system
Non-division home dog of 7+ off a loss
NFL regular season, non-division game, home dog of 7+ off a loss: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
33-20-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +18.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 33-20-1 (n=53), won 62.3% (95% range 48.8% to 74.1%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +18.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 21-13, +17.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 12-7-1, +20.5%
- 2021-22
- 9-7 (n=16), ROI +7.2%
- 2022-23
- 7-3 (n=10), ROI +34.2%
- 2023-24
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +19.0%
- 2024-25
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -5.2%
- 2025-26
- 8-3 (n=11), ROI +39.3%
- 2026-27
- 2-2-1 (n=4), ROI -5.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.