NFL · spread · Published system
Non-division road favorite of 3 or less
NFL regular season, non-division game, road favorite of 3 or less: team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
99-72-9 since 2021, ROI after the vig +10.3%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 99-72-9 (n=171), won 57.9% (95% range 50.4% to 65.0%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +10.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 52-37-7, +11.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 47-35-2, +9.4%
- 2021-22
- 18-9 (n=27), ROI +27.2%
- 2022-23
- 17-14-3 (n=31), ROI +4.1%
- 2023-24
- 17-14-4 (n=31), ROI +4.0%
- 2024-25
- 20-12-1 (n=32), ROI +19.3%
- 2025-26
- 16-17 (n=33), ROI -7.8%
- 2026-27
- 11-6-1 (n=17), ROI +24.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.