NFL · spread · Published system
Pre-bye home underdogs
Home underdog in the game before its bye. Bet: back them on the spread.
20-13-2 since 2021, ROI after the vig +16.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (33 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 20-13-2 (n=33), won 60.6% (95% range 43.7% to 75.3%); break-even 52.1%; ROI after the vig +16.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 11-6, +24.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 9-7-2, +8.2%
- 2021-22
- 2-1 (n=3), ROI +27.0%
- 2022-23
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +29.8%
- 2023-24
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +19.1%
- 2024-25
- 4-5-1 (n=9), ROI -14.2%
- 2025-26
- 4-2 (n=6), ROI +28.3%
- 2026-27
- 1-0-1 (n=1), ROI +89.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.