NFL · total · Published system
Under after an upset win as a 7+ dog, now favored
Won outright last game as a 7+ dog; favored now: Under. Bet: bet the under.
18-9 since 2021, ROI after the vig +27.3%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig on a small sample (27 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 18-9 (n=27), won 66.7% (95% range 47.8% to 81.4%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +27.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 9-4, +32.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 9-5, +22.9%
- 2021-22
- 5-2 (n=7), ROI +36.4%
- 2022-23
- 2-0 (n=2), ROI +90.7%
- 2023-24
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -4.6%
- 2024-25
- 1-3 (n=4), ROI -52.1%
- 2025-26
- 7-0 (n=7), ROI +91.0%
- 2026-27
- 1-2 (n=3), ROI -36.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.