NHL · moneyline · MoneyLine system
Home underdogs of +171 or longer off a win
Home team priced as underdogs of +171 or longer; won/lost its previous game (off a win). Bet: back them on the moneyline.
50-102 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.1%.
MoneyLine system — made money in 2024-25 to 2026-27 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 50-102 (n=152), won 32.9% (95% range 25.9% to 40.7%); break-even 32.9%; ROI after the vig +4.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 31-77, -7.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 19-25, +33.3%
- 2021-22
- 12-30 (n=42), ROI -11.4%
- 2022-23
- 14-21 (n=35), ROI +27.4%
- 2023-24
- 5-26 (n=31), ROI -42.6%
- 2024-25
- 13-15 (n=28), ROI +43.8%
- 2025-26
- 4-7 (n=11), ROI +14.5%
- 2026-27
- 2-3 (n=5), ROI +15.7%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.