NHL · moneyline · Published system
Non-conference home dogs after a 3-4 goal loss
Home underdog, non-conference opponent, lost previous game by 3 or 4. Bet: back them on the moneyline.
94-104 since 2021, ROI after the vig +11.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 94-104 (n=198), won 47.5% (95% range 40.6% to 54.4%); break-even 43.0%; ROI after the vig +11.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 51-62, +6.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 43-42, +17.0%
- 2021-22
- 12-19 (n=31), ROI -13.8%
- 2022-23
- 14-25 (n=39), ROI -13.8%
- 2023-24
- 25-18 (n=43), ROI +40.7%
- 2024-25
- 22-20 (n=42), ROI +25.4%
- 2025-26
- 15-16 (n=31), ROI +5.8%
- 2026-27
- 6-6 (n=12), ROI +16.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.